Spurna.
Spurna.
Election · Nov 3, 2026 · 7 days out

43 seats are favored to change party, 36 of them toward Democrats.

35 Senate · 36 governor · 435 House · Kalshi and Polymarket, Oct 27, 2026
U.S. Senate51 for a majority
D 52D +548 R
U.S. House218 for a majority
D 236D +20199 R
Governors36 races
D 22D +414 R

Favored to flip

Every office · strongest first
All officesSenateGovernorHouse
Favored D · 258Lean D · 13Toss-up · 11Lean R · 23Favored R · 196Every race · 514

U.S. Senate

35 races · most likely to flip first
RaceHeld byDemocratRepublicanChance it flipsMarket
RepublicanOpen seat
97% → D
D 97%Safe D
Republican
75% → D
D 75%Likely D
RepublicanOpen seat
66% → D
D 66%Lean D
Republican
60% → D
D 60%Lean D
RepublicanOpen seat
42%
R 58%Toss-up
DemocraticOpen seat
31%
D 69%Lean D
97% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 97%
AlaskaLikely D
75% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 75%
68% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 68%
TexasLean D
66% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 66%
MaineLean D
60% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 60%
IowaToss-up
42%
Held by Republicans · open seat · market R 58%
KansasLean R
40%
Held by Republicans · market R 60%
MichiganLean D
31%
Held by Democrats · open seat · market D 69%
NebraskaLean R
27%
Held by Republicans · market R 73%
23%
Held by Republicans · market R 77%

Governor

39 races · most likely to flip first
RaceHeld byDemocratRepublicanChance it flipsMarket
RepublicanOpen seat
88% → D
D 88%Likely D
RepublicanOpen seat
83% → D
D 83%Likely D
RepublicanOpen seat
83% → D
D 83%Likely D
DemocraticOpen seat
76% → R
R 76%Likely R
Republican
74% → D
D 74%Lean D
RepublicanOpen seat
61% → D
D 61%Lean D
AlaskaLikely D
88% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 88%
IowaLikely D
83% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 83%
OhioLikely D
83% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 83%
KansasLikely R
76% → R
Held by Democrats · open seat · market R 76%
NevadaLean D
74% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 74%
GeorgiaLean D
61% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 61%

U.S. House

440 races · most likely to flip first
RaceHeld byDemocratRepublicanChance it flipsMarket
RepublicanOpen seat
98% → D
D 98%Safe D
RepublicanOpen seat
95% → D
D 95%Safe D
RepublicanOpen seat
92% → D
D 92%Safe D
Republican
90% → D
D 90%Safe D
DemocraticOpen seat
89% → R
R 89%Likely R
98% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 98%
97% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 97%
95% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 95%
95% → D
Held by an independent · market D 95%
93% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 93%
92% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 92%
92% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 92%
92% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 92%
90% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 90%
89% → R
Held by Democrats · open seat · market R 89%
Roster: Politics1 and The Green Papers directories reconciled with state candidate lists where published, checked Sep 29, 2026. Odds: open race-winner contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket, read Oct 27, 2026; most settle on the party winning the seat. Chance it flips: the market's probability that the seat changes party. Ratings follow the favorite's odds: toss-up under 60%, lean to 75%, likely to 90%, safe above. Nothing here is a poll.