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U.S. Senate · Alaska · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Alaska Senate
Mary Peltola (Democrat) against Dan Sullivan (Republican, incumbent). Peltola is up 17 points on the markets since April.
Also running
Where they stand · 40 points apart
Peltola is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Mary PeltolaestimateDan Sullivanrecord
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedPeltola$32.6MSullivan$11.2MItemized, named donorsPeltola$18MSullivan$4.6MNamed donorsPeltola24,301Sullivan3,331Itemized from AlaskaPeltola9%Sullivan23%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“To Hell with Politics… Put Alaska First.”
“I'm committed to protecting them for generations to come.” Peltola · X post · Aug 26 · ↗
“What a Saturday! Thanks to my good friend Senator Ted Cruz for joining me on a statewide tour. We traveled over 1,000 miles across our great state! Early voting opens TODAY! Get out and vote Alaska!” Sullivan · X post · Oct 20 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | Kalshi | this candidate | 73% | 74% | 74% | $236,210 | Open ↗ |
| Mary Peltola | Polymarket | this candidate | 74% | 75% | 75% | $1,038,341 | Open ↗ |
| Dan Sullivan | Kalshi | this candidate | 26% | 27% | 27% | $294,932 | Open ↗ |
| Dan Sullivan | Polymarket | this candidate | 25% | 26% | 25% | $653,025 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Alaska ballot
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll