Spurna.
Spurna.
Election · Nov 3, 2026 · 0 days out

47 seats are favored to change party, 41 of them toward Democrats.

35 Senate · 36 governor · 435 House · Kalshi and Polymarket, Nov 3, 2026
U.S. Senate51 for a majority
D 53D +647 R
U.S. House218 for a majority
D 241D +25194 R
Governors36 races
D 22D +414 R

Favored to flip

Every office · strongest first
All officesSenateGovernorHouse
Favored D · 263Lean D · 13Toss-up · 14Lean R · 20Favored R · 191Every race · 514

U.S. Senate

35 races · most likely to flip first
RaceHeld byDemocratRepublicanChance it flipsMarket
RepublicanOpen seat
97% → D
D 97%Safe D
RepublicanOpen seat
72% → D
D 72%Lean D
Republican
71% → D
D 71%Lean D
Republican
68% → D
D 68%Lean D
RepublicanOpen seat
49%
R 51%Toss-up
DemocraticOpen seat
24%
D 76%Likely D
97% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 97%
TexasLean D
72% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 72%
AlaskaLean D
71% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 71%
71% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 71%
MaineLean D
68% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 68%
KansasLean D
62% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 62%
IowaToss-up
49%
Held by Republicans · open seat · market R 51%
30%
Held by Republicans · market R 70%
NebraskaLean R
29%
Held by Republicans · market R 71%
MichiganLikely D
24%
Held by Democrats · open seat · market D 76%

Governor

39 races · most likely to flip first
RaceHeld byDemocratRepublicanChance it flipsMarket
RepublicanOpen seat
88% → D
D 88%Likely D
RepublicanOpen seat
87% → D
D 87%Likely D
RepublicanOpen seat
81% → D
D 81%Likely D
Republican
80% → D
D 80%Likely D
RepublicanOpen seat
69% → D
D 69%Lean D
DemocraticOpen seat
64% → R
R 64%Lean R
IowaLikely D
88% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 88%
AlaskaLikely D
87% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 87%
OhioLikely D
81% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 81%
NevadaLikely D
80% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 80%
GeorgiaLean D
69% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 69%
KansasLean R
64% → R
Held by Democrats · open seat · market R 64%

U.S. House

440 races · most likely to flip first
RaceHeld byDemocratRepublicanChance it flipsMarket
RepublicanOpen seat
99% → D
D 99%Safe D
RepublicanOpen seat
95% → D
D 95%Safe D
RepublicanOpen seat
94% → D
D 94%Safe D
Republican
94% → D
D 94%Safe D
Republican
92% → D
D 92%Safe D
99% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 99%
95% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 95%
95% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 95%
95% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 95%
94% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 94%
94% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 94%
93% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 93%
92% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 92%
92% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 92%
91% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 91%
Roster: Politics1 and The Green Papers directories reconciled with state candidate lists where published, checked Sep 29, 2026. Odds: open race-winner contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket, read Nov 3, 2026; most settle on the party winning the seat. Chance it flips: the market's probability that the seat changes party. Ratings follow the favorite's odds: toss-up under 60%, lean to 75%, likely to 90%, safe above. Nothing here is a poll.