Spurna.
Spurna.
Election · Nov 3, 2026 · 1 days out

48 seats are favored to change party, 41 of them toward Democrats.

35 Senate · 36 governor · 435 House · Kalshi and Polymarket, Nov 2, 2026
U.S. Senate51 for a majority
D 53D +647 R
U.S. House218 for a majority
D 240D +24195 R
Governors36 races
D 22D +414 R

Favored to flip

Every office · strongest first
All officesSenateGovernorHouse
Favored D · 262Lean D · 11Toss-up · 13Lean R · 24Favored R · 190Every race · 514

U.S. Senate

35 races · most likely to flip first
RaceHeld byDemocratRepublicanChance it flipsMarket
RepublicanOpen seat
97% → D
D 97%Safe D
RepublicanOpen seat
74% → D
D 74%Lean D
Republican
73% → D
D 73%Lean D
Republican
73% → D
D 73%Lean D
RepublicanOpen seat
48%
R 52%Toss-up
DemocraticOpen seat
23%
D 77%Likely D
97% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 97%
TexasLean D
74% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 74%
AlaskaLean D
73% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 73%
MaineLean D
73% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 73%
70% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 70%
KansasLean D
64% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 64%
IowaToss-up
48%
Held by Republicans · open seat · market R 52%
33%
Held by Republicans · market R 67%
NebraskaLean R
30%
Held by Republicans · market R 70%
MichiganLikely D
23%
Held by Democrats · open seat · market D 77%

Governor

39 races · most likely to flip first
RaceHeld byDemocratRepublicanChance it flipsMarket
RepublicanOpen seat
87% → D
D 87%Likely D
RepublicanOpen seat
87% → D
D 87%Likely D
RepublicanOpen seat
83% → D
D 83%Likely D
Republican
74% → D
D 74%Lean D
DemocraticOpen seat
70% → R
R 70%Lean R
RepublicanOpen seat
69% → D
D 69%Lean D
AlaskaLikely D
87% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 87%
IowaLikely D
87% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 87%
OhioLikely D
83% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 83%
NevadaLean D
74% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 74%
KansasLean R
70% → R
Held by Democrats · open seat · market R 70%
GeorgiaLean D
69% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 69%

U.S. House

440 races · most likely to flip first
RaceHeld byDemocratRepublicanChance it flipsMarket
RepublicanOpen seat
99% → D
D 99%Safe D
RepublicanOpen seat
95% → D
D 95%Safe D
RepublicanOpen seat
93% → D
D 93%Safe D
Republican
91% → D
D 91%Safe D
Republican
89% → D
D 89%Likely D
99% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 99%
97% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 97%
95% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 95%
95% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 95%
94% → D
Held by an independent · market D 94%
93% → D
Held by Republicans · open seat · market D 93%
93% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 93%
92% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 92%
91% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 91%
89% → D
Held by Republicans · market D 89%
Roster: Politics1 and The Green Papers directories reconciled with state candidate lists where published, checked Sep 29, 2026. Odds: open race-winner contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket, read Nov 2, 2026; most settle on the party winning the seat. Chance it flips: the market's probability that the seat changes party. Ratings follow the favorite's odds: toss-up under 60%, lean to 75%, likely to 90%, safe above. Nothing here is a poll.