Election · Nov 3, 2026 · 2 days out
48 seats are favored to change party, 40 of them toward Democrats.
35 Senate · 36 governor · 435 House · Kalshi and Polymarket, Nov 2, 2026
U.S. Senate51 for a majority
D 53D +647 R
U.S. House218 for a majority
D 239D +22196 R
Governors36 races
D 22D +414 R
Favored to flip
Every office · strongest firstAll officesSenateGovernorHouse
Favored D · 263Lean D · 10Toss-up · 15Lean R · 22Favored R · 191Every race · 514
U.S. Senate
35 races · most likely to flip firstRaceHeld byDemocratRepublicanChance it flipsMarket
Show all 35
Governor
39 races · most likely to flip firstRaceHeld byDemocratRepublicanChance it flipsMarket
Show all 39
U.S. House
440 races · most likely to flip firstRaceHeld byDemocratRepublicanChance it flipsMarket
Show all 440
Roster: Politics1 and The Green Papers directories reconciled with state candidate lists where published, checked Sep 29, 2026. Odds: open race-winner contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket, read Nov 2, 2026; most settle on the party winning the seat. Chance it flips: the market's probability that the seat changes party. Ratings follow the favorite's odds: toss-up under 60%, lean to 75%, likely to 90%, safe above. Nothing here is a poll.