U.S. House · Maine · Nov 3 · 7 days out

Maine House, district 2

Paul LePage (Republican) against Matt Dunlap (Democrat).

Republican · challenger · estimate Right 40

55%party to win

vs.

Democrat · challenger · estimate Left 32

45%party to win

Where they stand · 73 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

Paul LePageestimateMatt Dunlapestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

4032

73 pts

Federal budget, taxes and spending

4335

77 pts ▸

Immigration

4328

70 pts ▸

Crime and justice

3720

57 pts ▸

Energy, environment, land and agriculture

2828

55 pts ▸

Trade and industrial policy

2825

53 pts ▸

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedLePage

$3.2MDunlap

$2.7MItemized, named donorsLePage

$1.4MDunlap

$1.5MNamed donorsLePage

689Dunlap

1,879Itemized from MaineLePage

73%Dunlap

60%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

Campaign sites and X

“veto soft-on-crime policies” LePage · X post · Sep 12 · ↗

“STANDING UP FOR MAINERS”

“We need Medicare for All. Period.” Dunlap · X post · Apr 28 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Paul LePage	Kalshi	Republican wins	55%	56%	55%	$91,866	Open ↗
Paul LePage	Polymarket	Republican wins	54%	55%	55%	$26,370	Open ↗
Matt Dunlap	Kalshi	Democrat wins	43%	45%	45%	$130,621	Open ↗
Matt Dunlap	Polymarket	Democrat wins	45%	46%	45%	$45,999	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the Maine ballot

Senate

Governor · open seat

House · ME-1

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll