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Governor · Nevada · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Nevada Governor
Aaron Ford (Democrat) against Joe Lombardo (Republican, incumbent). Ford is up 21 points on the markets since April.
Also running
Where they stand · 64 points apart
EstimatesHollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.
Aaron FordestimateJoe Lombardoestimate
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“LET'S MOVE FORWARD. THAT'S THE RIGHT WAY AHEAD.”
“Ford will strongly support the right for all non-classified NSHE employees to organize and collectively bargain.” Ford · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
“SHERIFF. GOVERNOR. LEADER.”
“we’ve cut and streamlined more than 900 regulations that were holding job creators back” Lombardo · X post · Feb 10 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Ford | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 73% | 74% | 74% | $1,264,588 | Open ↗ |
| Aaron Ford | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 75% | 76% | 76% | $507,257 | Open ↗ |
| Joe Lombardo | Kalshi | Republican wins | 27% | 28% | 27% | $844,608 | Open ↗ |
| Joe Lombardo | Polymarket | Republican wins | 24% | 25% | 25% | $342,711 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Nevada ballot
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll