Ken Paxton
Candidate · U.S. Senate · Texas
Republican · Challenger35%
Party to win · Kalshi, Oct 27, 2026
▼ 21 pts since April
Running for
OfficeU.S. Senate
SeatTexas, statewide
AgainstJames Talarico (D)
ElectionNov 3, 2026 · 7 days
StandingChallenger
BallotDirectory listing
Links
Websitekenpaxton.com ↗
X@kenpaxtontx ↗ Campaign
Running statewide
Texas · Senate seat
Roster checked Sep 29, 2026. Listed as: Attorney General.
The campaign · in their wordskenpaxton.com · read Oct 19, 2026 ↗
“UNSHAKABLE. UNBROKEN. UNAFRAID.”
Plank 1 · campaign site
Carry the Torch for Trump's Agenda
“Ken Paxton has always been a loyal supporter of President Trump and a staunch supporter of the America First movement.”
Plank 2 · campaign site
TAKE ON BIG FOOD AND BIG PHARMA
“For too long, powerful pharmaceutical companies and corporate food interests have put profits ahead of the health of the American people.”
Plank 3 · campaign site
Sovereignty Matters. Borders Must Hold
“Ken Paxton is running to help President Trump finish the border wall and protect our national sovereignty.”
Page titles and first lines from the campaign's own site, unedited. 5 pages read.
Where They Stand
Statement estimateNo votes yet, so this is read from the campaign’s own words, on the same scale as a member’s record.
Overall
from 6 statements
Right
Issue · by emphasisLeftCenterRightReadTalks about
Odds over time · Kalshi daily closes
Talarico (D) — 66%Paxton (R) — 35%
The race · Texas Senate · 7 days out
James TalaricoDemocrat · challenger · Left 31 from statements66%Ken PaxtonRepublican · challenger · Right 39 from statements35%3139
70 points apart · hollow = estimate, solid = record
Money · FEC through Sep 30, 2026
$19.5M
Raised
$19M
From individuals
Named donors · gifts over $200
$14M
Itemized · 72% of individual
14,478
Named donors
74%
Itemized from Texas
By occupation
$5.9M
$1.2M
$566k
$336k
$233k
By state
$10M
$549k
$376k
$238k
$146k
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
“John Cornyn is running again because he wants to push amnesty.”
“he will help President Trump deport the criminal illegal aliens Joe Biden invited into the country”
“he will help President Trump deport the criminal illegal aliens Joe Biden invited into the country, secure the border, and complete the construction of the border wall.”
On the ballot with them · Texas, Nov 3, 2026
TX Governor
Greg Abbott (R) · 67%
vs. Gina Hinojosa (D) · 32%
TX-1
Nathaniel Moran (R) · 95%
vs. Yolanda Prince (D) · 2%
TX-2 · open seat
Steve Toth (R) · 92%
vs. Shaun Finnie (D) · 6%
TX-3
Keith Self (R) · 95%
vs. Evan Hunt (D) · 4%
TX-4
Pat Fallon (R) · 94%
vs. Jason Pearce (D) · 1%
TX-5
Lance Gooden (R) · 94%
vs. Chelsey Hockett (D) · 2%
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll
Ken Paxton
Candidate · U.S. Senate · Texas
Republican · Challenger35%
Party to win · Kalshi
▼ 21 pts since April
7
Days to Nov 3
vs. Talarico (D)
The campaign · in their wordsRead Oct 19, 2026 ↗
“UNSHAKABLE. UNBROKEN. UNAFRAID.”
Plank 1
Carry the Torch for Trump's Agenda
“Ken Paxton has always been a loyal supporter of President Trump and a staunch supporter of the America First movement.”
Plank 2
TAKE ON BIG FOOD AND BIG PHARMA
“For too long, powerful pharmaceutical companies and corporate food interests have put profits ahead of the health of the American people.”
Plank 3
Sovereignty Matters. Borders Must Hold
“Ken Paxton is running to help President Trump finish the border wall and protect our national sovereignty.”
Page titles and first lines from the campaign's site, unedited · kenpaxton.com
Where They Stand
EstimateNo votes yet, so this is read from the campaign’s own words.
Issue · by emphasisRead · talks about
ImmigrationRight 47
Right, 47 points from center
Civil rightsRight 45
Right, 45 points from center
Health careRight 33
Right, 33 points from center
Crime and justiceRight 30
Right, 30 points from center
GunsRight 25
Right, 25 points from center
Energy and landRight 28
Right, 28 points from center
Odds over time · Kalshi
Talarico 66%Paxton 35%
The race · TX Senate · 7 days out
James TalaricoDemocrat · challenger · Left 31 from statements66%Ken PaxtonRepublican · challenger · Right 39 from statements35%3139
Hollow = estimate from statements · solid = voting record
Money · FEC through Sep 30, 2026
Raised, 2026
From individuals
Itemized · 72% of individual
Named donors
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
“John Cornyn is running again because he wants to push amnesty.”
“he will help President Trump deport the criminal illegal aliens Joe Biden invited into the country”
“he will help President Trump deport the criminal illegal aliens Joe Biden invited into the country, secure the border, and complete the construction of the border wall.”
On the ballot with them · Texas
TX GovernorAbbott (R) vs. Hinojosa (D)67% · 32%TX-1Moran (R) vs. Prince (D)95% · 2%TX-2 · open seatToth (R) vs. Finnie (D)92% · 6%TX-3Self (R) vs. Hunt (D)95% · 4%TX-4Fallon (R) vs. Pearce (D)94% · 1%TX-5Gooden (R) vs. Hockett (D)94% · 2%
All 40 Texas races →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll