← All races
U.S. Senate · Kansas · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Kansas Senate
Roger "Doc" Marshall (Republican, incumbent) against Adam Hamilton (Democrat). Hamilton is up 28 points on the markets since April.
Where they stand · 49 points apart
Hamilton is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Roger "Doc" MarshallrecordAdam Hamiltonestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedMarshall$9.6MHamilton$13.5MItemized, named donorsMarshall$1.8MHamilton$9.2MNamed donorsMarshall992Hamilton8,614Itemized from KansasMarshall20%Hamilton58%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Every county. Every year.”
“Adam Hamilton wants to lecture Kansans about their values while promoting a radical political agenda that Kansas families reject. Our faith, our families, and our children are not pawns for the progressive left.” Marshall · X post · Oct 20 · ↗
“Let's Build a better kansas”
“Reverse the cuts to Medicaid and restore the ACA subsidies that hold premiums down.” Hamilton · Campaign site · Sep 29 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger "Doc" Marshall | Kalshi | Republican wins | 59% | 60% | 60% | $1,989,337 | Open ↗ |
| Roger "Doc" Marshall | Polymarket | Republican wins | 60% | 61% | 61% | $731,236 | Open ↗ |
| Adam Hamilton | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 40% | 41% | 41% | $2,782,739 | Open ↗ |
| Adam Hamilton | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 38% | 39% | 39% | $588,106 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Kansas ballot
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll