U.S. House · Florida · Nov 3 · 7 days out

Florida House, district 9

Dan Green (Republican) against Darren Soto (Democrat, incumbent).

Republican · challenger · estimate Right 35

71%party to win

vs.

Democrat · incumbent · record L-lean 19

29%party to win

Where they stand · 54 points apart

Green is an estimate

Solid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.

Dan GreenestimateDarren Sotorecord

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

3519

54 pts

Guns

4521

66 pts ▸

Crime and justice

2921

49 pts ▸

Foreign policy, trade and defense

2517

42 pts ▸

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedGreen

$2.2MSoto

$3.5MItemized, named donorsGreen

$192kSoto

$1.3MNamed donorsGreen

105Soto

837Itemized from FloridaGreen

81%Soto

34%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

Campaign sites and X

“Fighting For Us. Always.”

“We don't need uninformed legislation” Green · X post · Invalid Date · ↗

“Congrats to @RaysBaseball on your BIG win last night! Good luck in the World Series. #RaysUp” Soto · X post · Oct 20 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Dan Green	Kalshi	Republican wins	70%	71%	71%	$42,030	Open ↗
Dan Green	Polymarket	Republican wins	68%	69%	70%	$15,801	Open ↗
Darren Soto	Kalshi	Democrat wins	29%	30%	29%	$54,981	Open ↗
Darren Soto	Polymarket	Democrat wins	30%	32%	31%	$11,413	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the Florida ballot

Senate

Governor · open seat

House · FL-1

House · FL-2

House · FL-3

House · FL-4

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll