U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out

California House, district 6

Richard Pan (Democrat) against Kevin Kiley (NPP, incumbent).

Richard Pan

Democrat · challenger · estimate Left 26

95%party to win

vs.

Kevin Kiley

NPP · incumbent · record Cntr-rt 9

6%party to win

Where they stand · 35 points apart

Pan is an estimate

Solid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.

Richard PanestimateKevin Kileyrecord

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

269

35 pts

Guns

3811

48 pts ▸

Health care

289

37 pts ▸

Federal budget, taxes and spending

288

35 pts ▸

Civil rights, gender and religion

2312

34 pts ▸

Education

1810

27 pts ▸

Foreign policy, trade and defense

187

25 pts ▸

Crime and justice

169

25 pts ▸

Immigration

231

24 pts ▸

Money

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedPan

$2.3MKiley

$3.6MItemized, named donorsPan

$1.1MKiley

$1.7MNamed donorsPan

1,262Kiley

1,691Itemized from CaliforniaPan

76%Kiley

87%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

In their own words

Campaign sites and X

“"Public Health Hero."”

“cutting health care & food assistance” Pan · X post · Sep 14 · ↗

“Our Independent Voice in Washington.”

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 2

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Richard Pan	Kalshi	Democrat wins	95%	96%	95%	$17,024	Open ↗
Kevin Kiley	Kalshi	this candidate	4%	6%	6%	$18,400	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the California ballot

All 52 →

Governor · open seat

Becerra (D) 96% · Hilton (R) 4%

House · CA-1

McGuire (D) 97% · Gallagher (R) 6%

House · CA-2

Huffman (D) 98% · Littau (R) <1%

House · CA-3

Bera (D) 95% · Tucker (R) 3%

House · CA-4

Thompson (D) 71% · Jones (D) 32%

House · CA-5

McClintock (R) 93% · Masuda (D) 7%

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll