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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 1
Mike McGuire (Democrat) against James Gallagher (Republican, incumbent).
Where they stand · 69 points apart
EstimatesHollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.
Mike McGuireestimateJames Gallagherestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedMcGuire$2.2MGallagher$1.9MItemized, named donorsMcGuire$1.2MGallagher$898kNamed donorsMcGuire979Gallagher712Itemized from CaliforniaMcGuire92%Gallagher93%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McGuire | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 94% | 95% | 94% | $6,047 | Open ↗ |
| Mike McGuire | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 95% | 97% | 97% | $38,614 | Open ↗ |
| James Gallagher | Kalshi | Republican wins | 6% | 6% | 6% | $11,462 | Open ↗ |
| James Gallagher | Polymarket | Republican wins | 3% | 5% | 5% | $11,454 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll