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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 22
Randy Villegas (Democrat) against David Valadao (Republican, incumbent).
Where they stand · 46 points apart
Villegas is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Randy VillegasestimateDavid Valadaorecord
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedVillegas$5.5MValadao$6.1MItemized, named donorsVillegas$3.3MValadao$1.7MNamed donorsVillegas3,268Valadao983Itemized from CaliforniaVillegas62%Valadao50%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“mandating age verification and parental consent for high-risk AI tools” Villegas · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
“Fighting for VALLEY FAMILIES”
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Villegas | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 90% | 91% | 92% | $60,075 | Open ↗ |
| Randy Villegas | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 90% | 91% | 89% | $10,329 | Open ↗ |
| David Valadao | Kalshi | Republican wins | 9% | 9% | 9% | $158,861 | Open ↗ |
| David Valadao | Polymarket | Republican wins | 8% | 9% | 9% | $21,544 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll