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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 48
Marni von Wilpert (Democrat) against Jim Desmond (Republican).
Where they stand · 65 points apart
EstimatesHollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.
Marni von WilpertestimateJim Desmondestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedWilpert$4.5MDesmond$3MItemized, named donorsWilpert$2.8MDesmond$2MNamed donorsWilpert2,615Desmond1,566Itemized from CaliforniaWilpert67%Desmond92%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marni von Wilpert | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 92% | 92% | 92% | $24,288 | Open ↗ |
| Marni von Wilpert | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 93% | 94% | 95% | $26,850 | Open ↗ |
| Jim Desmond | Kalshi | Republican wins | 8% | 8% | 8% | $15,195 | Open ↗ |
| Jim Desmond | Polymarket | Republican wins | 6% | 7% | 5% | $17,960 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll