U.S. House · Texas · Nov 3 · 7 days out

Texas House, district 9

Alex Mealer (Republican) against Letty Gutierrez (Democrat).

Republican · challenger · estimate Right 33

78%party to win

vs.

Democrat · challenger · estimate L-lean 18

22%party to win

Where they stand · 52 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

Alex MealerestimateLetty Gutierrezestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

3318

52 pts

Immigration

4123

64 pts ▸

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedMealer

$2.7MGutierrez

$152kItemized, named donorsMealer

$1.8MGutierrez

$120kNamed donorsMealer

616Gutierrez

114Itemized from TexasMealer

91%Gutierrez

87%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

Campaign sites and X

“Spend less, deliver more” Mealer · X post · Jul 20 · ↗

“Fighting for Texas. Fighting for you.”

“In Congress, I’ll fight to rein in ICE and hold this administration accountable.” Gutierrez · X post · Sep 22 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Alex Mealer	Kalshi	Republican wins	78%	79%	78%	$48,906	Open ↗
Alex Mealer	Polymarket	Republican wins	77%	78%	75%	$30,193	Open ↗
Letty Gutierrez	Kalshi	Democrat wins	22%	23%	22%	$18,304	Open ↗
Letty Gutierrez	Polymarket	Democrat wins	22%	23%	24%	$17,066	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the Texas ballot

Senate · open seat

Governor

House · TX-1

House · TX-2

House · TX-3

House · TX-4

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll