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U.S. Senate · Texas · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Texas Senate
James Talarico (Democrat) against Ken Paxton (Republican). Paxton is down 21 points on the markets since April.
Also running
Where they stand · 70 points apart
EstimatesHollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.
James TalaricoestimateKen Paxtonestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedTalarico$128.8MPaxton$19.5MItemized, named donorsTalarico$55MPaxton$14MNamed donorsTalarico103,301Paxton14,478Itemized from TexasTalarico49%Paxton74%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 65% | 66% | 66% | $14,445,492 | Open ↗ |
| James Talarico | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 67% | 68% | 68% | $2,835,845 | Open ↗ |
| Ken Paxton | Kalshi | Republican wins | 34% | 35% | 35% | $29,895,662 | Open ↗ |
| Ken Paxton | Polymarket | Republican wins | 32% | 33% | 33% | $4,032,153 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Texas ballot
All 39 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll