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Governor · Texas · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Texas Governor
Greg Abbott (Republican, incumbent) against Gina Hinojosa (Democrat). Hinojosa is up 19 points on the markets since April.
Where they stand · 68 points apart
EstimatesHollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.
Greg AbbottestimateGina Hinojosaestimate
Money
Texas Ethics Commission to Sep 24RaisedAbbott$88.8MHinojosa$21.5MItemized, named donorsAbbott$75MHinojosa$20MNamed donorsAbbott35,777Hinojosa199,892Itemized from TexasAbbott88%Hinojosa75%
Texas Ethics Commission names only donors who give over $110, so smaller gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Abbott | Kalshi | Republican wins | 66% | 67% | 67% | $3,660,813 | Open ↗ |
| Greg Abbott | Polymarket | Republican wins | 65% | 66% | 67% | $613,034 | Open ↗ |
| Gina Hinojosa | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 32% | 33% | 32% | $3,134,143 | Open ↗ |
| Gina Hinojosa | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 34% | 35% | 34% | $418,248 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Texas ballot
All 39 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll