U.S. House · North Carolina · Nov 3 · 7 days out

North Carolina House, district 3

Greg Murphy (Republican, incumbent) against Raymond Smith (Democrat).

Greg Murphy

Republican · incumbent · estimate Right 29

65%party to win

vs.

Raymond Smith

Democrat · challenger · no positions yet

35%party to win

Where they stand

Estimates

Read from the campaign’s own words; no voting record yet.

Greg Murphyestimate

IssueLeftCenterRight

Overall

Federal budget, taxes and spending

▸

Business, finance and labor

▸

Immigration

▸

Civil rights, gender and religion

▸

Energy, environment, land and agriculture

▸

Money

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedMurphy

$2.8MSmith

$344kItemized, named donorsMurphy

$1.1MSmith

$171kNamed donorsMurphy

756Smith

259Itemized from North CarolinaMurphy

55%Smith

70%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

In their own words

Campaign sites and X

“We must enforce our laws and crack down on these abuses.” Murphy · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

“build a healthcare system that brings down costs, expands access, and makes quality care affordable for more people” Smith · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Greg Murphy	Kalshi	Republican wins	65%	66%	65%	$145,589	Open ↗
Greg Murphy	Polymarket	Republican wins	63%	64%	65%	$33,039	Open ↗
Raymond Smith	Kalshi	Democrat wins	35%	36%	35%	$114,018	Open ↗
Raymond Smith	Polymarket	Democrat wins	36%	37%	37%	$36,961	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the North Carolina ballot

All 14 →

Senate · open seat

Cooper (D) 97% · Whatley (R) 4%

House · NC-1

Davis (D) 83% · Buckhout (R) 18%

House · NC-2

Ross (D) 98% · Douglass (R) 1%

House · NC-4

Foushee (D) 95% · Ganorkar (R) 5%

House · NC-5

Foxx (R) 85% · Hubbard (D) 14%

House · NC-6

McDowell (R) 87% · Jefferson (D) 12%

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll