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U.S. House · Minnesota · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Minnesota House, district 1
Brad Finstad (Republican, incumbent) against Jake Johnson (Democrat (DFL)).
Where they stand · 44 points apart
Johnson is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Brad FinstadrecordJake Johnsonestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedFinstad$2.6MJohnson$3.2MItemized, named donorsFinstad$812kJohnson$1.8MNamed donorsFinstad652Johnson2,182Itemized from MinnesotaFinstad68%Johnson73%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“BRINGING MINNESOTA COMMON SENSE TO WASHINGTON”
“While in Red Wing last week, we enjoyed some famous Hanisch Bakery donuts with Mayor Iocco and city leaders. Stop by and support this great local business next time you’re in town!” Finstad · X post · Oct 19 · ↗
“Solving Problems for Southern Minnesota”
“I look forward to voting to restore Medicaid funding” Johnson · X post · Aug 21 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Finstad | Kalshi | Republican wins | 61% | 62% | 62% | $187,186 | Open ↗ |
| Brad Finstad | Polymarket | Republican wins | 61% | 63% | 64% | $28,177 | Open ↗ |
| Jake Johnson | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 37% | 38% | 37% | $201,965 | Open ↗ |
| Jake Johnson | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 36% | 37% | 36% | $53,480 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Minnesota ballot
All 9 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll