U.S. House · Florida · Nov 3 · 7 days out

Florida House, district 19

Jim Schwartzel (Republican) against Victor Arias (Democrat).

Republican · challenger · estimate Right 37

95%party to win

vs.

Democrat · challenger · estimate L-lean 16

4%party to win

Where they stand · 53 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

Jim SchwartzelestimateVictor Ariasestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

3716

53 pts

Education

3513

48 pts ▸

Crime and justice

3018

48 pts ▸

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedSchwartzel

$2.8MArias

$70kItemized, named donorsSchwartzel

$1.1MArias

$21kNamed donorsSchwartzel

346Arias

33Itemized from FloridaSchwartzel

86%Arias

94%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

Campaign sites and X

“If we expect ICE to enforce the law and do the job right, they must be fully funded.” Schwartzel · X post · Mar 27 · ↗

“Support Medicare's ability to negotiate prescription drug prices and cap out-of-pocket costs.” Arias · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Jim Schwartzel	Kalshi	Republican wins	95%	96%	96%	$225	Open ↗
Jim Schwartzel	Polymarket	Republican wins	94%	95%	95%	$9,513	Open ↗
Victor Arias	Kalshi	Democrat wins	3%	5%	5%	$1,681	Open ↗
Victor Arias	Polymarket	Democrat wins	3%	5%	4%	$28,994	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the Florida ballot

Senate

Governor · open seat

House · FL-1

House · FL-2

House · FL-3

House · FL-4

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll