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U.S. Senate · Florida · special election · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Florida Senate
Ashley Moody (Republican, incumbent) against Angie Nixon (Democrat). Moody is up 5 points on the markets since April.
Where they stand · 72 points apart
Nixon is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Ashley MoodyrecordAngie Nixonestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedMoody$13.3MNixon$8.2MItemized, named donorsMoody$4.3MNixon$2.8MNamed donorsMoody5,401Nixon4,586Itemized from FloridaMoody43%Nixon57%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“AMERICA FIRST FIGHTER”
“Florida, it’s time to VOTE! Early voting starts statewide today and runs through next Saturday. I’m fighting to keep our state safe, strong, and FREE. And I’m asking for your vote. FIND YOUR POLLING PLACE 👇” Moody · X post · Aug 8 · ↗
“Change Can't Wait”
“Taxing capital gains the same as wages” Nixon · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Moody | Kalshi | Republican wins | 88% | 89% | 89% | $787,457 | Open ↗ |
| Ashley Moody | Polymarket | Republican wins | 90% | 91% | 91% | $187,460 | Open ↗ |
| Angie Nixon | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 11% | 12% | 12% | $1,628,408 | Open ↗ |
| Angie Nixon | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 9% | 11% | 11% | $119,056 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Florida ballot
All 29 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll