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U.S. House · Florida · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Florida House, district 1
Jimmy Patronis (Republican, incumbent) against Gay Valimont (Democrat).
Where they stand · 51 points apart
Valimont is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Jimmy PatronisrecordGay Valimontestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedPatronis$4.4MValimont$276kItemized, named donorsPatronis$2.5MValimont$103kNamed donorsPatronis1,857Valimont166Itemized from FloridaPatronis79%Valimont82%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“America First. Trump endorsed.”
“Early voting is underway! 🗳️ Make a plan to vote early, find your nearest polling location, and cast your ballot ahead of Election Day! 🇺🇸” Patronis · X post · Oct 20 · ↗
“Florida's 1st Deserves a Congresswoman Who Fights.”
“Gay will fight for universal, affordable, quality healthcare.” Valimont · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Patronis | Kalshi | Republican wins | 96% | 98% | 98% | $2,266 | Open ↗ |
| Jimmy Patronis | Polymarket | Republican wins | 96% | 98% | 97% | $90,014 | Open ↗ |
| Gay Valimont | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 2% | 3% | 5% | $3,215 | Open ↗ |
| Gay Valimont | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 2% | 4% | 4% | $29,086 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Florida ballot
All 29 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll