Justin Earley
Candidate · U.S. House · Texas
Democrat · Challenger5%
Party to win · Kalshi, Oct 27, 2026
Running for
OfficeU.S. House
SeatTexas, district 31
AgainstJohn Carter (R), incumbent
ElectionNov 3, 2026 · 7 days
StandingChallenger
BallotDirectory listing
Links
Websitevotejustinearly.com ↗
X@votejustinearly ↗ Campaign
The district
TX-31 · Texas
Roster checked Sep 29, 2026. Listed as: Cybersecurity Architect & Army Veteran.
The campaign · in their wordsvotejustinearly.com · read Oct 19, 2026 ↗
Plank 1 · campaign site
Protecting American Jobs and Workers
“I'll protect workers' rights to keep their jobs while they recover.”
Plank 2 · campaign site
Protecting Fair Immigration
“I'll work to streamline the process and give immigrants the clarity they deserve.”
Page titles and first lines from the campaign's own site, unedited. 21 pages read.
Where They Stand
Statement estimateNo votes yet, so this is read from the campaign’s own words, on the same scale as a member’s record.
Overall
from 7 statements
Left
Issue · by emphasisLeftCenterRightReadTalks about
The race · Texas House, district 31 · 7 days out
John CarterRepublican · incumbent · Rt-lean 20 on the record94%Justin EarleyDemocrat · challenger · Left 31 from statements5%2031
51 points apart · hollow = estimate, solid = record
In their own words
“Let’s guarantee paid leave for all.”
“I’ll work to restore our moral standing by rebuilding our refugee programs.”
“Let’s shift the tax burden off working families and onto those who can afford it.”
On the ballot with them · Texas, Nov 3, 2026
TX Senate · open seat
James Talarico (D) · 66%
vs. Ken Paxton (R) · 35%
TX Governor
Greg Abbott (R) · 67%
vs. Gina Hinojosa (D) · 32%
TX-1
Nathaniel Moran (R) · 95%
vs. Yolanda Prince (D) · 2%
TX-2 · open seat
Steve Toth (R) · 92%
vs. Shaun Finnie (D) · 6%
TX-3
Keith Self (R) · 95%
vs. Evan Hunt (D) · 4%
TX-4
Pat Fallon (R) · 94%
vs. Jason Pearce (D) · 1%
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll
Justin Earley
Candidate · U.S. House · Texas
Democrat · Challenger5%
Party to win · Kalshi
Oct 27, 2026 snapshot
7
Days to Nov 3
vs. Carter (R), inc.
The campaign · in their wordsRead Oct 19, 2026 ↗
Plank 1
Protecting American Jobs and Workers
“I'll protect workers' rights to keep their jobs while they recover.”
Plank 2
Protecting Fair Immigration
“I'll work to streamline the process and give immigrants the clarity they deserve.”
Page titles and first lines from the campaign's site, unedited · votejustinearly.com
Where They Stand
EstimateNo votes yet, so this is read from the campaign’s own words.
Issue · by emphasisRead · talks about
Housing and techLeft 33
Left, 33 points from center
Budget and taxesLeft 40
Left, 40 points from center
ImmigrationLeft 35
Left, 35 points from center
EducationLeft 33
Left, 33 points from center
Crime and justiceL-lean 18
L-lean, 18 points from center
Civil rightsL-lean 18
L-lean, 18 points from center
Health careL-lean 15
L-lean, 15 points from center
The race · TX-31 · 7 days out
John CarterRepublican · incumbent · Rt-lean 20 on the record94%Justin EarleyDemocrat · challenger · Left 31 from statements5%2031
Hollow = estimate from statements · solid = voting record
In their own words
“Let’s guarantee paid leave for all.”
“I’ll work to restore our moral standing by rebuilding our refugee programs.”
“Let’s shift the tax burden off working families and onto those who can afford it.”
On the ballot with them · Texas
TX Senate · open seatTalarico (D) vs. Paxton (R)66% · 35%TX GovernorAbbott (R) vs. Hinojosa (D)67% · 32%TX-1Moran (R) vs. Prince (D)95% · 2%TX-2 · open seatToth (R) vs. Finnie (D)92% · 6%TX-3Self (R) vs. Hunt (D)95% · 4%TX-4Fallon (R) vs. Pearce (D)94% · 1%
All 40 Texas races →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll