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U.S. House · Texas · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Texas House, district 31
John Carter (Republican, incumbent) against Justin Earley (Democrat).
Where they stand · 51 points apart
Earley is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
John CarterrecordJustin Earleyestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedCarter$1.5MEarley—Itemized, named donorsCarter$405kEarley—Named donorsCarter238Earley—Itemized from TexasCarter20%Earley—
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“KEEPING WASHINGTON OUT OF TEXAS”
“Nidal Hasan caused immeasurable wounds to our community. The victims, survivors, their families and our community deserve to see justice finally served.” Carter · X post · Oct 10 · ↗
“Let’s guarantee paid leave for all.” Earley · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carter | Kalshi | Republican wins | 92% | 94% | 93% | $2,296 | Open ↗ |
| John Carter | Polymarket | Republican wins | 93% | 95% | 94% | $32,576 | Open ↗ |
| Justin Earley | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 6% | 8% | 7% | $5,852 | Open ↗ |
| Justin Earley | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 4% | 5% | 5% | $29,649 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Texas ballot
All 39 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll