Caroline Shinkle
Candidate · U.S. House · New York
Republican / Constitution · Challenger1%
Party to win · Kalshi, Oct 27, 2026
Running for
OfficeU.S. House
SeatNew York, district 12
AgainstMicah Lasher (D)
ElectionNov 3, 2026 · 7 days
StandingChallenger
BallotDirectory listing
Links
The district
NY-12 · New York
Roster checked Sep 29, 2026. Listed as: Attorney.
The campaign · in their wordscarolinefornewyork.com · read Oct 19, 2026 ↗
Plank 1 · campaign site
Protect the Paycheck
“Allow New Yorkers to keep more of what they earn by reducing tax on work.”
Plank 2 · campaign site
Prioritize our Students
“Revamp and revitalize the quality and affordability of our education system.”
Plank 3 · campaign site
Restore Safety and Security
“Prioritize the safety and security of New Yorkers and their livelihoods.”
Page titles and first lines from the campaign's own site, unedited. 23 pages read.
Where They Stand
Statement estimateNo votes yet, so this is read from the campaign’s own words, on the same scale as a member’s record.
Overall
from 5 statements
Right
Issue · by emphasisLeftCenterRightReadTalks about
The race · New York House, district 12 · 7 days out
Micah LasherDemocrat · challenger · Left 38 from statements97%Caroline ShinkleRepublican / Constitution · challenger · Right 30 from statements1%3830
67 points apart · hollow = estimate, solid = record
Money · FEC through Sep 30, 2026
$247k
Raised
$218k
From individuals
Named donors · gifts over $200
$179k
Itemized · 82% of individual
187
Named donors
63%
Itemized from New York
By occupation
$33k
$13k
$12k
$12k
$10k
By state
$112k
$17k
$15k
$10k
$9k
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
“End the revolving-door policies that return violent offenders to our streets”
“Empower our law enforcement officers to protect our communities. Enforce the law. Prosecute criminals.”
“Ensure federal prosecutors have the resources to tackle crime including retail theft, drug trafficking, and subway assaults”
On the ballot with them · New York, Nov 3, 2026
NY Governor
Kathy Hochul (D/WF) · 94%
vs. Bruce Blakeman (R/C/VA) · 6%
NY-1
Nick LaLota (R/C) · 78%
vs. Chris Gallant (D) · 21%
NY-2
Andrew Garbarino (R/C) · 80%
vs. Pat Halpin (D/WF) · 22%
NY-3
Tom Suozzi (D) · 90%
vs. Mike LiPetri (R/C) · 12%
NY-4
Laura Gillen (D) · 92%
vs. Jeanine Driscoll (R/C) · 9%
NY-5
Gregory Meeks (D) · 97%
vs. George Marsh (R/Queens United) · 1%
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll
Caroline Shinkle
Candidate · U.S. House · New York
Republican / Constitution · Challenger1%
Party to win · Kalshi
Oct 27, 2026 snapshot
7
Days to Nov 3
vs. Lasher (D)
The campaign · in their wordsRead Oct 19, 2026 ↗
“For the People.”
Plank 1
Protect the Paycheck
“Allow New Yorkers to keep more of what they earn by reducing tax on work.”
Plank 2
Prioritize our Students
“Revamp and revitalize the quality and affordability of our education system.”
Plank 3
Restore Safety and Security
“Prioritize the safety and security of New Yorkers and their livelihoods.”
Page titles and first lines from the campaign's site, unedited · carolinefornewyork.com
Where They Stand
EstimateNo votes yet, so this is read from the campaign’s own words.
Issue · by emphasisRead · talks about
Crime and justiceRight 35
Right, 35 points from center
Budget and taxesRight 45
Right, 45 points from center
EducationLeans left
Leans left
Housing and techMixed
Mixed
Health careRight 33
Right, 33 points from center
Foreign policyMixed
Mixed
Energy and landRight 28
Right, 28 points from center
The race · NY-12 · 7 days out
Micah LasherDemocrat · challenger · Left 38 from statements97%Caroline ShinkleRepublican / Constitution · challenger · Right 30 from statements1%3830
Hollow = estimate from statements · solid = voting record
Money · FEC through Sep 30, 2026
Raised, 2026
From individuals
Itemized · 82% of individual
Named donors
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
“End the revolving-door policies that return violent offenders to our streets”
“Empower our law enforcement officers to protect our communities. Enforce the law. Prosecute criminals.”
“Ensure federal prosecutors have the resources to tackle crime including retail theft, drug trafficking, and subway assaults”
On the ballot with them · New York
NY GovernorHochul (D/WF) vs. Blakeman (R/C/VA)94% · 6%NY-1LaLota (R/C) vs. Gallant (D)78% · 21%NY-2Garbarino (R/C) vs. Halpin (D/WF)80% · 22%NY-3Suozzi (D) vs. LiPetri (R/C)90% · 12%NY-4Gillen (D) vs. Driscoll (R/C)92% · 9%NY-5Meeks (D) vs. Marsh (R/Queens United)97% · 1%
All 27 New York races →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll