U.S. House · New York · Nov 3 · 7 days out

New York House, district 12

Micah Lasher (Democrat) against Caroline Shinkle (Republican / Constitution).

Democrat · challenger · estimate Left 38

97%party to win

vs.

Republican / Constitution · challenger · estimate Right 30

1%party to win

Where they stand · 67 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

Micah LasherestimateCaroline Shinkleestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

3830

67 pts

Federal budget, taxes and spending

4345

88 pts ▸

Health care

4333

75 pts ▸

Energy, environment, land and agriculture

4328

70 pts ▸

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedLasher

$3.4MShinkle

$247kItemized, named donorsLasher

$2.8MShinkle

$179kNamed donorsLasher

1,576Shinkle

187Itemized from New YorkLasher

88%Shinkle

63%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

Campaign sites and X

“Fund TSA. Abolish ICE.” Lasher · X post · Mar 23 · ↗

“For the People.”

“End the revolving-door policies that return violent offenders to our streets” Shinkle · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Micah Lasher	Kalshi	Democrat wins	97%	98%	98%	$2,356	Open ↗
Micah Lasher	Polymarket	Democrat wins	97%	99%	97%	$17,653	Open ↗
Caroline Shinkle	Kalshi	Republican wins	2%	3%	2%	$8,049	Open ↗
Caroline Shinkle	Polymarket	Republican wins	<1%	1%	1%	$17,615	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the New York ballot

Governor

House · NY-1

House · NY-2

House · NY-3

House · NY-4

House · NY-5

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll