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U.S. House · New York · Nov 3 · 7 days out
New York House, district 2
Andrew Garbarino (Republican / Constitution, incumbent) against Pat Halpin (Democrat / Working Families).
Where they stand · 30 points apart
Halpin is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Andrew GarbarinorecordPat Halpinestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedGarbarino$4MHalpin$577kItemized, named donorsGarbarino$806kHalpin$477kNamed donorsGarbarino607Halpin392Itemized from New YorkGarbarino35%Halpin80%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Delivering Results For Long Island”
“Glad to be joined by @SpeakerJohnson and @SteveScalise this week as we demonstrated some of the technology being used and evaluated across our homeland security mission.” Garbarino · X post · Sep 2 · ↗
“Fighting for the South Shore.”
“Preserve open space and environmentally sensitive lands.” Halpin · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Garbarino | Kalshi | Republican wins | 78% | 79% | 80% | $11,732 | Open ↗ |
| Andrew Garbarino | Polymarket | Republican wins | 78% | 79% | 80% | $9,277 | Open ↗ |
| Pat Halpin | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 21% | 22% | 22% | $25,976 | Open ↗ |
| Pat Halpin | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 20% | 23% | 22% | $13,146 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the New York ballot
All 26 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll