U.S. House · New Jersey · Nov 3 · 7 days out

New Jersey House, district 3

Herb Conaway (Democrat, incumbent) against Michael McGuire (Republican).

Democrat · incumbent · estimate L-lean 17

94%party to win

vs.

Republican · challenger · estimate Rt-lean 18

3%party to win

Where they stand · 35 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

Herb ConawayestimateMichael McGuireestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

1718

35 pts

Federal budget, taxes and spending

1833

50 pts ▸

Trade and industrial policy

2018

38 pts ▸

Civil rights, gender and religion

1830

13 pts ▸

Housing, transportation, technology and vice

1815

2 pts ▸

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedConaway

$1.1MMcGuire

$211kItemized, named donorsConaway

$441kMcGuire

$173kNamed donorsConaway

403McGuire

375Itemized from New JerseyConaway

67%McGuire

33%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

Campaign sites and X

“I am an advocate for expanding the Child Tax Credit” Conaway · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

“It’s time to cut both so they can grow, hire more New Jerseyans, and thrive.” McGuire · X post · Jul 22 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Herb Conaway	Kalshi	Democrat wins	97%	98%	98%	$1,966	Open ↗
Herb Conaway	Polymarket	Democrat wins	97%	98%	94%	$17,780	Open ↗
Michael McGuire	Kalshi	Republican wins	1%	3%	4%	$3,876	Open ↗
Michael McGuire	Polymarket	Republican wins	1%	3%	3%	$23,228	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the New Jersey ballot

Senate

House · NJ-1

House · NJ-2

House · NJ-4

House · NJ-5

House · NJ-6

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll