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U.S. House · New Jersey · Nov 3 · 7 days out
New Jersey House, district 4
Chris Smith (Republican, incumbent) against Rachel Peace (Democrat).
Where they stand · 65 points apart
EstimatesHollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.
Chris SmithestimateRachel Peaceestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedSmith$752kPeace$101kItemized, named donorsSmith$354kPeace$38kNamed donorsSmith339Peace69Itemized from New JerseySmith64%Peace91%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“under International Megan’s Law ... convicted child sex offenders who travel abroad must provide notice to the U.S. Government ... [which] informs the destination country or countries” Smith · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
“A Better Way”
“I'll also add my name to the Social Security Expansion Act” Peace · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Smith | Kalshi | Republican wins | 94% | 96% | 94% | $4,333 | Open ↗ |
| Chris Smith | Polymarket | Republican wins | 95% | 96% | 95% | $8,031 | Open ↗ |
| Rachel Peace | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 5% | 6% | 20% | $7,972 | Open ↗ |
| Rachel Peace | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 2% | 5% | 3% | $13,964 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the New Jersey ballot
All 12 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll