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U.S. House · Florida · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Florida House, district 28
Carlos Gimenez (Republican, incumbent) against Phil Ehr (Democrat).
Where they stand · 41 points apart
Ehr is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Carlos GimenezrecordPhil Ehrestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedGimenez$697kEhr$508kItemized, named donorsGimenez$215kEhr$134kNamed donorsGimenez99Ehr495Itemized from FloridaGimenez63%Ehr62%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Common Sense Leadership for South Florida”
“🚨MUST WATCH —> My dear friend, colleague, and fellow Cuban-American, @RepNicole brilliantly exposes the brutal anti-American communist regime in #Cuba at the United Nations!” Gimenez · X post · Oct 19 · ↗
“NATO countries are our friends” Ehr · X post · Sep 21 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Gimenez | Kalshi | Republican wins | 93% | 94% | 93% | $3,054 | Open ↗ |
| Carlos Gimenez | Polymarket | Republican wins | 93% | 95% | 95% | $34,303 | Open ↗ |
| Phil Ehr | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 7% | 7% | 7% | $12,692 | Open ↗ |
| Phil Ehr | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 5% | 6% | 6% | $37,473 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Florida ballot
All 29 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll