Michele Tafoya
Candidate · U.S. Senate · Minnesota
Republican · Challenger16%
Party to win · Kalshi, Oct 27, 2026
▲ 4 pts since April
Running for
OfficeU.S. Senate
SeatMinnesota, statewide
AgainstPeggy Flanagan (DFL)
ElectionNov 3, 2026 · 7 days
StandingChallenger
BallotDirectory listing
Links
Running statewide
Minnesota · Senate seat
Roster checked Sep 29, 2026. Listed as: Retired NBC Sportscaster, Podcast Host & GOP Activist.
The campaign · in their wordsmicheletafoya.com · read Oct 19, 2026 ↗
Plank 1 · campaign site
Stop The Fraud
“We need to clean up our state and lead the way toward a nationwide anti-fraud agenda.”
Plank 2 · campaign site
Law and Order
“Stand with law enforcement.”
Plank 3 · campaign site
Cut Costs and Taxes for the Middle Class
“We need outsiders who will make Congress spend less, borrow less and tax less - and invest in American workers instead of selling them out.”
Page titles and first lines from the campaign's own site, unedited. 7 pages read.
Where They Stand
Statement estimateNo votes yet, so this is read from the campaign’s own words, on the same scale as a member’s record.
Overall
from 10 statements
Right
Issue · by emphasisLeftCenterRightReadTalks about
Odds over time · Kalshi daily closes
Flanagan (DFL) — 84%Tafoya (R) — 16%
The race · Minnesota Senate · 7 days out
Peggy FlanaganDemocrat (DFL) · challenger · Left 36 from statements84%Michele TafoyaRepublican · challenger · Right 35 from statements16%3635
72 points apart · hollow = estimate, solid = record
Money · FEC through Sep 30, 2026
$9.7M
Raised
$8.3M
From individuals
Named donors · gifts over $200
$4.4M
Itemized · 54% of individual
6,913
Named donors
49%
Itemized from Minnesota
By occupation
$2.5M
$211k
$152k
$83k
$82k
By state
$2.1M
$332k
$301k
$245k
$105k
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
“FOR deporting those not playing by the rules”
“let federal, state and local law enforcement work together”
“If the state is offering help, they shouldn’t discriminate.”
On the ballot with them · Minnesota, Nov 3, 2026
MN Governor · open seat
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) · 95%
vs. Lisa Demuth (R) · 5%
MN-1
Brad Finstad (R) · 62%
vs. Jake Johnson (DFL) · 37%
MN-2 · open seat
Matt Little (DFL) · 95%
vs. Eric Pratt (R) · 3%
MN-3
Kelly Morrison (DFL) · 96%
vs. Tyler Bass (R) · 4%
MN-4
Betty McCollum (DFL) · 98%
vs. Paul Wikstrom (R) · 4%
MN-5
Ilhan Omar (DFL) · 95%
vs. John Nagel (R) · 5%
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll
Michele Tafoya
Candidate · U.S. Senate · Minnesota
Republican · Challenger16%
Party to win · Kalshi
▲ 4 pts since April
7
Days to Nov 3
vs. Flanagan (DFL)
The campaign · in their wordsRead Oct 19, 2026 ↗
“I CALL IT LIKE I SEE IT”
Plank 1
Stop The Fraud
“We need to clean up our state and lead the way toward a nationwide anti-fraud agenda.”
Plank 2
Law and Order
“Stand with law enforcement.”
Plank 3
Cut Costs and Taxes for the Middle Class
“We need outsiders who will make Congress spend less, borrow less and tax less - and invest in American workers instead of selling them out.”
Page titles and first lines from the campaign's site, unedited · micheletafoya.com
Where They Stand
EstimateNo votes yet, so this is read from the campaign’s own words.
Issue · by emphasisRead · talks about
Crime and justiceRight 36
Right, 36 points from center
ImmigrationRight 48
Right, 48 points from center
Civil rightsRight 43
Right, 43 points from center
Budget and taxesRight 41
Right, 41 points from center
EducationRight 39
Right, 39 points from center
Business and laborRight 35
Right, 35 points from center
GunsRight 45
Right, 45 points from center
Energy and landRight 28
Right, 28 points from center
Health careRight 33
Right, 33 points from center
TradeMixed
Mixed
Federal powerLeft 33
Left, 33 points from center
Foreign policyRight 28
Right, 28 points from center
Odds over time · Kalshi
Flanagan 84%Tafoya 16%
The race · MN Senate · 7 days out
Peggy FlanaganDemocrat (DFL) · challenger · Left 36 from statements84%Michele TafoyaRepublican · challenger · Right 35 from statements16%3635
Hollow = estimate from statements · solid = voting record
Money · FEC through Sep 30, 2026
Raised, 2026
From individuals
Itemized · 54% of individual
Named donors
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
“FOR deporting those not playing by the rules”
“let federal, state and local law enforcement work together”
“If the state is offering help, they shouldn’t discriminate.”
On the ballot with them · Minnesota
MN Governor · open seatKlobuchar (DFL) vs. Demuth (R)95% · 5%MN-1Finstad (R) vs. Johnson (DFL)62% · 37%MN-2 · open seatLittle (DFL) vs. Pratt (R)95% · 3%MN-3Morrison (DFL) vs. Bass (R)96% · 4%MN-4McCollum (DFL) vs. Wikstrom (R)98% · 4%MN-5Omar (DFL) vs. Nagel (R)95% · 5%
All 10 Minnesota races →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll