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U.S. House · Minnesota · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Minnesota House, district 5
Ilhan Omar (Democrat (DFL), incumbent) against John Nagel (Republican).
Where they stand · 89 points apart
Nagel is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Ilhan OmarrecordJohn Nagelestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedOmar$6.4MNagel$1MItemized, named donorsOmar$2.1MNagel$306kNamed donorsOmar4,757Nagel875Itemized from MinnesotaOmar9%Nagel8%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Fighting for a better future for us all”
“ICE is out of control. This week, a five year-old child watched ICE shoot his father. Trump's rogue agency has shot more than 43 people in two years, murdering eight. There is no reforming this abhorrent agency. Abolish ICE.” Omar · X post · Oct 10 · ↗
“Safety. Sanity. Service.”
“We need to do it now. Stop immigration.” Nagel · X post · Mar 13 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilhan Omar | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 95% | 95% | 95% | $922,620 | Open ↗ |
| Ilhan Omar | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 94% | 97% | 94% | $42,164 | Open ↗ |
| John Nagel | Kalshi | Republican wins | 4% | 5% | 5% | $422,916 | Open ↗ |
| John Nagel | Polymarket | Republican wins | 3% | 5% | 5% | $36,783 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Minnesota ballot
All 9 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll