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U.S. Senate · Minnesota · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Minnesota Senate
Peggy Flanagan (Democrat (DFL)) against Michele Tafoya (Republican). Flanagan is down 7 points on the markets since April.
Where they stand · 72 points apart
EstimatesHollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.
Peggy FlanaganestimateMichele Tafoyaestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedFlanagan$10.3MTafoya$9.7MItemized, named donorsFlanagan$5.2MTafoya$4.4MNamed donorsFlanagan6,861Tafoya6,913Itemized from MinnesotaFlanagan44%Tafoya49%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 83% | 84% | 84% | $1,283,281 | Open ↗ |
| Peggy Flanagan | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 85% | 86% | 86% | $260,448 | Open ↗ |
| Michele Tafoya | Kalshi | Republican wins | 15% | 16% | 16% | $3,009,678 | Open ↗ |
| Michele Tafoya | Polymarket | Republican wins | 14% | 15% | 15% | $190,448 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Minnesota ballot
All 9 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll