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U.S. House · Florida · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Florida House, district 26
Mario Diaz-Balart (Republican, incumbent) against Nicole Locklin (Democrat).
Where they stand · 50 points apart
Locklin is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Mario Diaz-BalartrecordNicole Locklinestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedDiaz-Balart$2.6MLocklin$561kItemized, named donorsDiaz-Balart$1.5MLocklin$63kNamed donorsDiaz-Balart790Locklin140Itemized from FloridaDiaz-Balart39%Locklin25%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Diaz-Balart | Kalshi | Republican wins | 84% | 85% | 84% | $12,956 | Open ↗ |
| Mario Diaz-Balart | Polymarket | Republican wins | 83% | 86% | 85% | $50,969 | Open ↗ |
| Nicole Locklin | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 16% | 17% | 17% | $35,378 | Open ↗ |
| Nicole Locklin | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 15% | 17% | 13% | $47,038 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Florida ballot
All 29 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll