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U.S. House · Florida · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Florida House, district 17
Greg Steube (Republican, incumbent) against Matthew Montavon (Democrat).
Where they stand · 59 points apart
EstimatesHollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.
Greg SteubeestimateMatthew Montavonestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedSteube$1.6MMontavon$148kItemized, named donorsSteube$383kMontavon$76kNamed donorsSteube399Montavon74Itemized from FloridaSteube64%Montavon66%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“New to Your Ballot. Proven for Southwest Florida.”
“Take the flight home or ICE will handle your departure.” Steube · X post · Oct 19 · ↗
“READY TO DELIVER FOR THE PEOPLE OF FLORIDA'S GULF Coast”
“Restore order by processing asylum claims outside the United States.” Montavon · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Steube | Kalshi | Republican wins | 95% | 98% | 95% | $2,619 | Open ↗ |
| Greg Steube | Polymarket | Republican wins | 95% | 98% | 95% | $9,723 | Open ↗ |
| Matthew Montavon | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 3% | 5% | 5% | $2,981 | Open ↗ |
| Matthew Montavon | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 3% | 5% | 5% | $23,069 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Florida ballot
All 29 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll