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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 52
Juan Vargas (Democrat, incumbent) against Jeff Belle (Republican).
Where they stand
From their voting record.
Juan Vargasrecord
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedVargas$791kBelle$27kItemized, named donorsVargas$230kBelle$14kNamed donorsVargas145Belle11Itemized from CaliforniaVargas80%Belle90%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“My prayers are with the Silver Rail Elementary School community. No child or teacher should ever walk into school fearing for their life and safety. We won’t stop fighting to end gun violence in America.” Vargas · X post · Oct 16 · ↗
“The right leader at the right time to facilitate changes and accelerate growth for a stronger South Bay, San Diego County.”
“I support stronger border security” Belle · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Vargas | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 97% | 99% | 98% | $14,736 | Open ↗ |
| Juan Vargas | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 96% | 98% | 98% | $33,285 | Open ↗ |
| Jeff Belle | Kalshi | Republican wins | 2% | 3% | 5% | $478 | Open ↗ |
| Jeff Belle | Polymarket | Republican wins | 2% | 4% | 4% | $18,009 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll