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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 5
Tom McClintock (Republican, incumbent) against Michael Masuda (Democrat).
Where they stand · 57 points apart
Masuda is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Tom McClintockrecordMichael Masudaestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedMcClintock$1.2MMasuda$542kItemized, named donorsMcClintock$827kMasuda$330kNamed donorsMcClintock660Masuda525Itemized from CaliforniaMcClintock88%Masuda86%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McClintock | Kalshi | Republican wins | 93% | 94% | 94% | $3,437 | Open ↗ |
| Tom McClintock | Polymarket | Republican wins | 92% | 93% | 93% | $13,065 | Open ↗ |
| Michael Masuda | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 7% | 7% | 7% | $17,425 | Open ↗ |
| Michael Masuda | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 7% | 8% | 7% | $11,023 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll