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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 4
Mike Thompson (Democrat, incumbent) against Eric Jones (Democrat).
Where they stand · 9 points apart
Jones is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Mike ThompsonrecordEric Jonesestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedThompson$5.2MJones$13.3MItemized, named donorsThompson$2.5MJones$3.1MNamed donorsThompson2,018Jones678Itemized from CaliforniaThompson79%Jones73%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Thank you, Adams Seed and Grain, for giving me a tour of your processing plant. Adams is a fifth-generation, family-owned food company that has been based in and providing food for our Woodland community for over 100 years!” Thompson · X post · Oct 19 · ↗
“I’ll fight for a moratorium on new data centers in California” Jones · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thompson | Kalshi | this candidate | 67% | 70% | 71% | $28,761 | Open ↗ |
| Mike Thompson | Polymarket | this candidate | 70% | 75% | 73% | $11,226 | Open ↗ |
| Eric Jones | Kalshi | this candidate | 31% | 32% | 32% | $24,227 | Open ↗ |
| Eric Jones | Polymarket | this candidate | 24% | 30% | 30% | $7,624 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll