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Governor · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California Governor
Xavier Becerra (Democrat) against Steve Hilton (Republican). Becerra is up 95 points on the markets since April.
Where they stand · 77 points apart
EstimatesHollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.
Xavier BecerraestimateSteve Hiltonestimate
Money
California Secretary of State to Oct 17RaisedBecerra$39.7MHilton$31.9MItemized, named donorsBecerra$20MHilton$25MNamed donorsBecerra17,370Hilton53,128Itemized from CaliforniaBecerra85%Hilton82%
California Secretary of State names only donors who give $100 or more, so smaller gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 6
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Becerra | Kalshi | this candidate | 96% | 96% | 96% | $6,934,842 | Open ↗ |
| Xavier Becerra | Polymarket | this candidate | 96% | 97% | 97% | $2,463,460 | Open ↗ |
| Xavier Becerra | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 96% | 97% | 97% | $582,203 | Open ↗ |
| Steve Hilton | Kalshi | this candidate | 4% | 4% | 4% | $15,595,066 | Open ↗ |
| Steve Hilton | Polymarket | this candidate | 3% | 3% | 3% | $3,766,599 | Open ↗ |
| Steve Hilton | Kalshi | Republican wins | 4% | 4% | 4% | $2,013,809 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll