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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 3
Ami Bera (Democrat, incumbent) against Robb Tucker (Republican).
Where they stand · 57 points apart
Tucker is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Ami BerarecordRobb Tuckerestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedBera$1.4MTucker$294kItemized, named donorsBera$589kTucker$73kNamed donorsBera506Tucker92Itemized from CaliforniaBera74%Tucker96%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Making a Real Difference.”
“Thank you to the local leaders and residents who joined me for coffee and conversation in Truckee! I’m grateful to everyone who took time out of their morning to share their perspectives on the issues facing the Truckee community.” Bera · X post · Oct 15 · ↗
“I am a business owner, a public servant, and a champion for our community.”
“That means keeping decisions close to the people, cutting unfunded mandates” Tucker · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ami Bera | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 96% | 97% | 96% | $19,004 | Open ↗ |
| Ami Bera | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 95% | 96% | 95% | $26,541 | Open ↗ |
| Robb Tucker | Kalshi | Republican wins | 2% | 4% | 2% | $5,580 | Open ↗ |
| Robb Tucker | Polymarket | Republican wins | 2% | 4% | 3% | $17,673 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll