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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 33
Pete Aguilar (Democrat, incumbent) against Stephanie Vargas (Republican).
Where they stand · 52 points apart
Vargas is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Pete AguilarrecordStephanie Vargasestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedAguilar$5.6MVargas$721Itemized, named donorsAguilar$1.8MVargas$520Named donorsAguilar1,230Vargas1Itemized from CaliforniaAguilar37%Vargas100%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Aguilar | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 97% | 98% | 98% | $5,992 | Open ↗ |
| Pete Aguilar | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 95% | 96% | 96% | $7,371 | Open ↗ |
| Stephanie Vargas | Kalshi | Republican wins | 3% | 4% | 2% | $738 | Open ↗ |
| Stephanie Vargas | Polymarket | Republican wins | 4% | 5% | 5% | $14,268 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll