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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 23
Jay Obernolte (Republican, incumbent) against Tessa Lynn Hodge (Democrat).
Where they stand · 45 points apart
Hodge is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Jay ObernolterecordTessa Lynn Hodgeestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedObernolte$1.8MHodge$123kItemized, named donorsObernolte$561kHodge$64kNamed donorsObernolte245Hodge97Itemized from CaliforniaObernolte50%Hodge90%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Proven. Conservative. Fighter.”
“Working for you, not corporate special interests”
“I will fight for a single-payer healthcare system so everyone gets the care they need, no exceptions.” Hodge · Campaign site · Sep 29 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Obernolte | Kalshi | Republican wins | 94% | 96% | 96% | $1,505 | Open ↗ |
| Jay Obernolte | Polymarket | Republican wins | 95% | 96% | 97% | $40,867 | Open ↗ |
| Tessa Lynn Hodge | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 4% | 6% | 6% | $2,617 | Open ↗ |
| Tessa Lynn Hodge | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 1% | 4% | 4% | $69,718 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll