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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 15
Kevin Mullin (Democrat, incumbent) against Charles Hoelter (Republican).
Where they stand · 62 points apart
Hoelter is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Kevin MullinrecordCharles Hoelterestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedMullin$969kHoelter—Itemized, named donorsMullin$355kHoelter—Named donorsMullin362Hoelter—Itemized from CaliforniaMullin89%Hoelter—
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Defending Our Democracy & Delivering For Our District”
“Heads up! The deadline to apply to the @CongressionalAC is one week away!📱 If you're a middle or high schooler in CA-15 interested in coding, you can submit your app by October 26 for a chance to win national recognition!” Mullin · X post · Oct 20 · ↗
“Charles will fight for lower taxes” Hoelter · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Mullin | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 97% | 98% | 98% | $15,607 | Open ↗ |
| Kevin Mullin | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 96% | 96% | 96% | $94,628 | Open ↗ |
| Charles Hoelter | Kalshi | Republican wins | 2% | 4% | 2% | $979 | Open ↗ |
| Charles Hoelter | Polymarket | Republican wins | 1% | 4% | 4% | $29,052 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll