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U.S. House · Arizona · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Arizona House, district 9
Paul Gosar (Republican, incumbent) against Dani Sterbinsky (Democrat).
Where they stand · 64 points apart
Sterbinsky is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Paul GosarrecordDani Sterbinskyestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedGosar$764kSterbinsky$437kItemized, named donorsGosar$434kSterbinsky$60kNamed donorsGosar315Sterbinsky92Itemized from ArizonaGosar71%Sterbinsky30%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“"It is my privilege to be your voice in Congress and I'm proud of the things we've done for Arizona."”
“Import the chaos Inherit the consequences” Gosar · X post · Oct 18 · ↗
“Make work pay — support small businesses and gig workers, raise the federal minimum wage” Sterbinsky · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Gosar | Kalshi | Republican wins | 95% | 98% | 97% | $2,867 | Open ↗ |
| Paul Gosar | Polymarket | Republican wins | 94% | 98% | 97% | $20,789 | Open ↗ |
| Dani Sterbinsky | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 3% | 6% | 6% | $1,532 | Open ↗ |
| Dani Sterbinsky | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 2% | 4% | 3% | $17,889 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Arizona ballot
All 9 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll