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U.S. House · Arizona · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Arizona House, district 2
Eli Crane (Republican, incumbent) against Jonathan Nez (Democrat).
Where they stand · 57 points apart
EstimatesHollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.
Eli CraneestimateJonathan Nezestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedCrane$11.6MNez$5.4MItemized, named donorsCrane$6.4MNez$2.6MNamed donorsCrane12,844Nez3,127Itemized from ArizonaCrane9%Nez27%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Crane | Kalshi | Republican wins | 69% | 70% | 70% | $33,661 | Open ↗ |
| Eli Crane | Polymarket | Republican wins | 66% | 69% | 69% | $10,879 | Open ↗ |
| Jonathan Nez | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 31% | 32% | 32% | $98,394 | Open ↗ |
| Jonathan Nez | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 31% | 32% | 33% | $15,020 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Arizona ballot
All 9 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll