Paul Nolley
Candidate · U.S. House · Illinois
Democrat · Challenger2%
Party to win · Kalshi, Oct 27, 2026
Running for
OfficeU.S. House
SeatIllinois, district 16
AgainstDarin LaHood (R), incumbent
ElectionNov 3, 2026 · 7 days
StandingChallenger
BallotDirectory listing
Links
The district
IL-16 · Illinois
Roster checked Sep 29, 2026. Listed as: Nonprofit Executive.
The campaign · in their wordsnolleyforcongress.com · read Oct 19, 2026 ↗
“An independent leader fighting for working people”
Plank 1 · campaign site
Save Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid
“These vital programs, which have kept millions of Americans out of poverty, need to be strengthened - not slashed and burned by billionaires and the politicians they buy in Washington.”
Plank 2 · campaign site
End Corruption & Pay-to-Play Politics
“We need to put a stop to the corrupting influence of money in politics and ban members of Congress and their families from trading stocks.”
Plank 3 · campaign site
Preserve and Protect Family Farms
“We'll create commonsense policies to strengthen local farming and provide paths for young people and others to pursue Ag careers.”
Page titles and first lines from the campaign's own site, unedited. 40 pages read.
Where They Stand
Statement estimateNo votes yet, so this is read from the campaign’s own words, on the same scale as a member’s record.
Overall
from 6 statements
Left
Issue · by emphasisLeftCenterRightReadTalks about
The race · Illinois House, district 16 · 7 days out
Darin LaHoodRepublican · incumbent · Rt-lean 19 on the record96%Paul NolleyDemocrat · challenger · Left 27 from statements2%1927
46 points apart · hollow = estimate, solid = record
Money · FEC through Sep 30, 2026
$605k
Raised
$503k
From individuals
Named donors · gifts over $200
$348k
Itemized · 69% of individual
487
Named donors
97%
Itemized from Illinois
By occupation
$158k
$43k
$16k
$9k
$9k
By state
$336k
$3k
$2k
$2k
$1k
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
“We will fight for pro-worker legislation that makes it easier to collectively bargain and raise wages and benefits”
“passing Paid Family Leave legislation, expanding access to high-quality, affordable childcare, and increasing the Child Tax Credit.”
“We need to strengthen Social Security... by scrapping the payroll tax cap for people making $250,000 or more in wages and investment income.”
On the ballot with them · Illinois, Nov 3, 2026
IL Senate · open seat
Juliana Stratton (D) · 98%
vs. Don Tracy (R) · 2%
IL Governor
J.B. Pritzker (D) · 97%
vs. Darren Bailey (R) · 4%
IL-1
Jonathan Jackson (D) · 97%
vs. Christian Maxwell (R) · 5%
IL-2 · open seat
Donna Miller (D) · 97%
vs. Mike Noack (R) · 3%
IL-3
Delia Ramirez (D) · 97%
vs. Angel Oakley (R) · 2%
IL-4 · open seat
Patty Garcia (D) · 96%
vs. Chris Getty (I) · 9%
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll
Paul Nolley
Candidate · U.S. House · Illinois
Democrat · Challenger2%
Party to win · Kalshi
Oct 27, 2026 snapshot
7
Days to Nov 3
vs. LaHood (R), inc.
The campaign · in their wordsRead Oct 19, 2026 ↗
“An independent leader fighting for working people”
Plank 1
Save Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid
“These vital programs, which have kept millions of Americans out of poverty, need to be strengthened - not slashed and burned by billionaires and the politicians they buy in Washington.”
Plank 2
End Corruption & Pay-to-Play Politics
“We need to put a stop to the corrupting influence of money in politics and ban members of Congress and their families from trading stocks.”
Plank 3
Preserve and Protect Family Farms
“We'll create commonsense policies to strengthen local farming and provide paths for young people and others to pursue Ag careers.”
Page titles and first lines from the campaign's site, unedited · nolleyforcongress.com
Where They Stand
EstimateNo votes yet, so this is read from the campaign’s own words.
Issue · by emphasisRead · talks about
Budget and taxesLeft 33
Left, 33 points from center
Health careLeft 38
Left, 38 points from center
TradeLeft 33
Left, 33 points from center
Energy and landLeft 26
Left, 26 points from center
Crime and justiceL-lean 20
L-lean, 20 points from center
Foreign policyLeft 23
Left, 23 points from center
Housing and techLeft 23
Left, 23 points from center
Civil rightsL-lean 18
L-lean, 18 points from center
The race · IL-16 · 7 days out
Darin LaHoodRepublican · incumbent · Rt-lean 19 on the record96%Paul NolleyDemocrat · challenger · Left 27 from statements2%1927
Hollow = estimate from statements · solid = voting record
Money · FEC through Sep 30, 2026
Raised, 2026
From individuals
Itemized · 69% of individual
Named donors
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
“We will fight for pro-worker legislation that makes it easier to collectively bargain and raise wages and benefits”
“passing Paid Family Leave legislation, expanding access to high-quality, affordable childcare, and increasing the Child Tax Credit.”
“We need to strengthen Social Security... by scrapping the payroll tax cap for people making $250,000 or more in wages and investment income.”
On the ballot with them · Illinois
IL Senate · open seatStratton (D) vs. Tracy (R)98% · 2%IL GovernorPritzker (D) vs. Bailey (R)97% · 4%IL-1Jackson (D) vs. Maxwell (R)97% · 5%IL-2 · open seatMiller (D) vs. Noack (R)97% · 3%IL-3Ramirez (D) vs. Oakley (R)97% · 2%IL-4 · open seatGarcia (D) vs. Getty (I)96% · 9%
All 19 Illinois races →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll