← All races
U.S. House · Illinois · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Illinois House, district 16
Darin LaHood (Republican, incumbent) against Paul Nolley (Democrat).
Where they stand · 46 points apart
Nolley is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Darin LaHoodrecordPaul Nolleyestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedLaHood$4.2MNolley$605kItemized, named donorsLaHood$791kNolley$348kNamed donorsLaHood612Nolley487Itemized from IllinoisLaHood44%Nolley97%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“For 251 years, the @USNavy has defended our nation and upheld the ideals it represents across the seas. Forever grateful to our brave sailors who answered the call to serve. Happy birthday to the world’s finest Navy! 🇺🇸” LaHood · X post · Oct 13 · ↗
“An independent leader fighting for working people”
“We will fight for pro-worker legislation that makes it easier to collectively bargain and raise wages and benefits” Nolley · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darin LaHood | Kalshi | Republican wins | 94% | 97% | 96% | $11,222 | Open ↗ |
| Darin LaHood | Polymarket | Republican wins | 95% | 96% | 96% | $31,256 | Open ↗ |
| Paul Nolley | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 2% | 4% | 3% | $22,645 | Open ↗ |
| Paul Nolley | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 2% | 4% | 2% | $40,782 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Illinois ballot
All 18 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll