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U.S. Senate · Illinois · Nov 3 · 7 days out

Illinois Senate

Juliana Stratton (Democrat) against Don Tracy (Republican).

Juliana Stratton
Democrat · challenger · estimate Left 33
98%▲ 4 since April
vs.
Don Tracy
Republican · challenger · estimate Right 38
2%▼ 2 since April
100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%MAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTTODAY
100%75%50%25%0%MAYJUNJULAUGSEPTODAY
Party to win · Kalshi daily close, Oct 27All market contracts ▸

Where they stand · 71 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

Juliana StrattonestimateDon Tracyestimate
Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart
Overall
3338
71 pts

Money

FEC to Sep 30
RaisedStratton
$7.1MTracy
$4.1MItemized, named donorsStratton
$3.9MTracy
$497kNamed donorsStratton
3,688Tracy
511Itemized from IllinoisStratton
65%Tracy
77%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

In their own words

Campaign sites and X

“No immunity. No more funding.” Stratton · X post · Jan 30 · ↗

“I believe in supporting law enforcement” Tracy · X post · Jun 6 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
CandidatePlatformContractBidAskLastVolume
Juliana StrattonKalshiDemocrat wins98%98%98%$23,495Open ↗
Juliana StrattonPolymarketDemocrat wins97%99%97%$19,213Open ↗
Don TracyKalshiRepublican wins2%2%2%$13,681Open ↗
Don TracyPolymarketRepublican wins2%2%2%$18,173Open ↗
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Illinois ballot
All 18 →
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll