Governor · Illinois · Nov 3 · 7 days out

Illinois Governor

J.B. Pritzker (Democrat, incumbent) against Darren Bailey (Republican). Pritzker is up 5 points on the markets since April.

Democrat · incumbent · estimate Left 28

97%▲ 5 since April

vs.

Republican · challenger · estimate Right 33

4%▼ 4 since April

Party to win · Kalshi daily close, Oct 27All market contracts ▸

Also running

Where they stand · 61 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

J.B. PritzkerestimateDarren Baileyestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

2833

61 pts

Immigration

2848

75 pts ▸

Crime and justice

1748

65 pts ▸

Civil rights, gender and religion

2836

64 pts ▸

Energy, environment, land and agriculture

4115

56 pts ▸

Housing, transportation, technology and vice

3312

45 pts ▸

Federal budget, taxes and spending

1823

41 pts ▸

Campaign sites and X

“Keep Illinois moving forward”

“Families deserve ... Healthcare for all.” Pritzker · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

“Bold & Courageous Leadership”

“Cut billions in spending” Bailey · X post · Apr 15 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
J.B. Pritzker	Kalshi	Democrat wins	96%	97%	97%	$165,510	Open ↗
J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket	Democrat wins	96%	98%	98%	$11,514	Open ↗
Darren Bailey	Kalshi	Republican wins	4%	4%	4%	$121,893	Open ↗
Darren Bailey	Polymarket	Republican wins	2%	3%	3%	$17,773	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the Illinois ballot

Senate · open seat

House · IL-1

House · IL-2

House · IL-3

House · IL-4

House · IL-5

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll