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U.S. Senate · Virginia · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Virginia Senate
Mark Warner (Democrat, incumbent) against Bert Mizusawa (Republican).
Where they stand · 54 points apart
Mizusawa is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Mark WarnerrecordBert Mizusawaestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedWarner$19.9MMizusawa$1MItemized, named donorsWarner$6.7MMizusawa$420kNamed donorsWarner8,880Mizusawa661Itemized from VirginiaWarner43%Mizusawa79%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“The American people and Congress stand with Ukraine, yet Trump is weakening the U.S.’s position against Russia and jeopardizing democracies, all so he can cozy up to Putin.” Warner · X post · Oct 19 · ↗
“Help Secure the Commonwealth”
“secure the border and enforce the law” Mizusawa · X post · Jun 4 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Warner | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 98% | 98% | 98% | $29,168 | Open ↗ |
| Mark Warner | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 97% | 100% | 99% | $16,343 | Open ↗ |
| Bert Mizusawa | Kalshi | Republican wins | 1% | 2% | 2% | $36,048 | Open ↗ |
| Bert Mizusawa | Polymarket | Republican wins | 1% | 3% | 3% | $7,597 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Virginia ballot
All 11 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll