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U.S. House · Virginia · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Virginia House, district 5
John McGuire (Republican, incumbent) against Tom Perriello (Democrat).
Where they stand · 65 points apart
Perriello is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
John McGuirerecordTom Perrielloestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedMcGuire$2.2MPerriello$3.5MItemized, named donorsMcGuire$835kPerriello$2.6MNamed donorsMcGuire946Perriello2,078Itemized from VirginiaMcGuire44%Perriello59%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“America First. Always.”
“Had a great time last night at South Boston Speedway in Halifax County for the CARS Tour Championship Night! Treyten Lapcevich took the win in the Late Model Stock feature, and Mason Walters claimed the Pro Late Model victory.” McGuire · X post · Oct 19 · ↗
“The need for strong federal guardrails is urgent” Perriello · X post · Sep 9 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John McGuire | Kalshi | Republican wins | 65% | 66% | 66% | $202,200 | Open ↗ |
| John McGuire | Polymarket | Republican wins | 63% | 64% | 64% | $123,252 | Open ↗ |
| Tom Perriello | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 34% | 35% | 35% | $241,037 | Open ↗ |
| Tom Perriello | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 35% | 37% | 36% | $133,142 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Virginia ballot
All 11 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll