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U.S. House · Texas · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Texas House, district 6
Jake Ellzey (Republican, incumbent) against Danny Minton (Democrat).
Where they stand · 36 points apart
Minton is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Jake EllzeyrecordDanny Mintonestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedEllzey$5.5MMinton$147kItemized, named donorsEllzey$1.3MMinton$45kNamed donorsEllzey3,089Minton69Itemized from TexasEllzey22%Minton64%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Decorated Veteran”
“It was a privilege to join @POTUS and my fellow Texans aboard Air Force One today. Wherever this job takes me, I’m proud to represent my district and to serve the people who sent me here.” Ellzey · X post · Oct 1 · ↗
“ENOUGH POLITICS...PUT TEXAS FIRST.”
“strong public schools that prepare our kids to compete, and win, in a global economy” Minton · Campaign site · Invalid Date · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Ellzey | Kalshi | Republican wins | 95% | 98% | 98% | $890 | Open ↗ |
| Jake Ellzey | Polymarket | Republican wins | 99% | 99% | 99% | $84,187 | Open ↗ |
| Danny Minton | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 2% | 3% | 2% | $5,483 | Open ↗ |
| Danny Minton | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 1% | 2% | 1% | $46,564 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Texas ballot
All 39 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll